New revelations have emerged regarding the US and Israeli attempts to remove the Iranian government, with allegations that Israel intended to elevate populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power. Ahmadinejad, who served as Iran’s president from 2005 to 2013, was known for his aggressive rhetoric against Israel. However, after clashing with Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, he transformed his image into that of a regime critic and advocate for the poor. Reports suggest that Israel allegedly bombed a security building near his Tehran residence to aid his escape from house arrest, though Ahmadinejad reportedly became apprehensive about the operation.
The purported plans, as publicized, were largely dismissed as either implausible or potential misinformation circulated by Ahmadinejad’s backers or Israeli intelligence. Regardless, the situation underscores how the US and Israel may have overestimated both the internal opposition to the Iranian regime and their capacity to topple it through airstrikes. Amid domestic discontent over rising gas prices, former US President Donald Trump was seeking ways to disengage from the conflict but had not ruled out further airstrikes to compel Tehran to meet his conditions. After pausing an attack due to input from Gulf leaders, Trump later discussed potentially resuming hostilities with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
When questioned about whether Israel could be restrained from striking Iran, Trump remarked that Netanyahu would follow his directives, describing the Israeli leader as “a great guy.” Trump emphasized his desire to open the Strait of Hormuz while denying any urgency, stating he preferred limited casualties. Meanwhile, Tehran insists on delaying nuclear program negotiations, focusing instead on lifting sanctions in exchange for ending its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Concurrently, the US has initiated a counter-blockade targeting Iran’s oil exports, predominantly sent to China. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened to escalate the conflict if US attacks resumed.
Iranian media treated the reports with skepticism, claiming that Ahmadinejad was not under house arrest. During the initial Israeli strikes on February 28, Iranian outlets reported his potential death from a strike on his home, which was later clarified to be damage to a nearby security outpost, as confirmed by satellite images. Ahmadinejad survived with minor injuries, though his bodyguards were killed. Speculation arose that the chaos might enable Ahmadinejad’s return to power, despite his unlikely alliance with Netanyahu due to past anti-Israel rhetoric.
Trump had initially sought to replicate the Venezuelan strategy where US forces captured Nicolás Maduro but maintained the regime’s structure. However, Ahmadinejad’s strained relations with Tehran’s leadership make a similar outcome in Iran doubtful. His influence waned significantly after a fallout with Khamenei in 2011, further diminished when Ali Larijani became parliament speaker. Ahmadinejad, who was arrested in 2018 after criticizing his successor Hassan Rouhani’s government, has been barred from running for presidency, including in 2024, and has since remained largely silent, only mildly condemning Israeli strikes in 2025. In a notable shift, he reportedly visited Hungary to deliver a talk, marking a rare foreign engagement post-presidency.
